Summary: This article provides an analysis of the paper titled “Why Drones Have not Revolutionized War: The Enduring Hider-Finder Competition in Air Warfare.” It delves into the impact of drones on the military sector. Building on this, the author examines the implications from the perspectives of technological advancements, military competition, and developmental principles. The consensus is that unmanned systems will bring transformative changes to the military realm, following the universal principle of quantitative change leading to qualitative transformation, reshaping future combat concepts and styles.
Authors: Liu Shulei, a researcher at the National Defense Technology University’s Defense Technology Strategy Research Think Tank; Xu Haiyang, an associate researcher at the same institution. Source: International Social Science Journal (Chinese Edition), Issue 1, 2023, Pages 183-186. Editors: Shu Jianjun and Ma Yuhong.
With the demands of warfare and technological advancements, drone systems have garnered significant attention globally. Especially after decades of technological exploration and real-world application, drones have become increasingly prominent in the weapons system. They are transitioning from auxiliary battlefield equipment to primary combat equipment, playing a pivotal role in battlefield reconnaissance, information support, and firepower strikes, which will significantly alter future combat concepts and styles.
The question arises: How do drones influence modern warfare? What is their impact on the military realm? With the rapid development of unmanned technology and its extensive application in the military sector, many scholars have taken a keen interest in these questions. Antonio Calcara and other researchers published an article in the International Security journal titled “Why Drones Have not Revolutionized War: The Enduring Hider-Finder Competition in Air Warfare,” offering an in-depth analysis of the impact of drones in the military sector. The paper challenges the notion that drones tip the military balance in favor of the offense, reduce military force asymmetry, and eliminate close combat on modern battlefields. It argues that drones are vulnerable to anti-air and electronic warfare systems and require the support of other combat systems to be truly effective.
The article concludes that drones have not fundamentally changed warfare. After the 2001 Afghanistan war, there were increasing voices claiming that drones would rewrite the rules of modern warfare and even “determine the fate of nations.” This article rigorously analyzes these views and concludes that current modern local wars cannot prove the revolutionary role of drones in the military.
In conclusion, while the current era might not yet fully showcase the revolutionary impact of drones, the rapid advancements in unmanned technology suggest that drones and other unmanned systems will play a transformative role in future warfare. The integration of artificial intelligence, advanced materials, and manufacturing techniques will further enhance the capabilities of these systems, making them indispensable tools in the modern battlefield.
Future Outlook: Emphasizing the new developments and breakthroughs in intelligent unmanned technology, unmanned systems represent the forefront of human intelligence in weapon equipment. With the rapid development of cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, sensor technology, automation, communication systems, and new materials, unmanned systems are poised to redefine the landscape of modern warfare. Countries around the world are intensifying their research and development efforts to gain a competitive edge in this emerging field, aiming to secure a dominant position in future military confrontations.
Furthermore, the integration of unmanned systems with other advanced technologies will lead to the creation of more sophisticated and versatile weapon systems. For instance, the combination of drones with quantum communication could result in ultra-secure communication channels on the battlefield, while the fusion of AI with unmanned systems can lead to fully autonomous combat units capable of making real-time decisions without human intervention.
Another significant area of focus is the development of swarm technology, where multiple drones operate in coordination, mimicking the behavior of natural swarms like birds or insects. Such swarms can overwhelm enemy defenses, conduct large-scale reconnaissance, or carry out coordinated strikes, presenting a formidable challenge to traditional defense systems.
However, with these advancements come new challenges. The increasing reliance on unmanned systems and AI-driven warfare raises ethical and moral dilemmas. Questions about accountability, decision-making in life-and-death situations, and the potential for unintended escalation due to machine errors become paramount. As a result, there is a growing need for international regulations and norms to govern the use of these technologies in warfare.
Moreover, the defense sector must also address the potential vulnerabilities of unmanned systems. As these systems become more interconnected and reliant on digital networks, they become susceptible to cyberattacks. Ensuring the cybersecurity of these systems is crucial to prevent adversaries from hijacking, disabling, or turning them against their operators.
In the coming decades, the race to develop and deploy advanced unmanned systems will intensify. Nations that can harness the potential of these technologies while addressing their inherent challenges will be better positioned to dictate the terms of future conflicts. It is imperative for countries to invest not only in the development of these systems but also in the training of personnel skilled in their operation and maintenance. Only with a holistic approach can nations truly leverage the revolutionary potential of unmanned systems in modern warfare.
In summary, while drones and other unmanned systems have not yet revolutionized warfare in the way some predicted, their potential impact cannot be underestimated. As technology continues to advance at an unprecedented rate, the role of unmanned systems in the theater of war will only grow, reshaping strategies, tactics, and the very nature of conflict in the 21st century.
