In recent years, Turkey has rapidly emerged as a global powerhouse in the export of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), disrupting a market once dominated by the United States, Israel, and China. According to Selçuk Bayraktar, chairman of Baykar, Turkey now controls 65% of the global UAV export market, with Baykar alone contributing 60% of that share. Over 90% of Baykar’s revenue comes from international sales, a figure that highlights both the company’s global reach and the growing demand for Turkish drones.
This transformation represents more than just a commercial success story — it reflects a strategic realignment in global defense supply chains, shaped by cost-effectiveness, geopolitical alliances, and shifting regulatory landscapes.
Baykar and the Bayraktar Effect
At the center of Turkey’s UAV dominance is Baykar, the developer of the now-iconic Bayraktar TB2 and the more advanced TB3. These drones have redefined the economics of modern warfare:
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Cost-effectiveness: A single TB2 system costs a fraction of U.S. or Israeli alternatives, enabling countries with limited budgets to build sizeable fleets.
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Proven combat performance: From the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to operations in Ukraine and Libya, TB2s have demonstrated exceptional reliability and precision, making them “battle-tested” assets.
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Technological milestones: The Bayraktar TB3 became the world’s first drone capable of short-runway carrier-based operations, completing 170 successful automatic take-offs and landings.
Baykar’s dominance is not accidental. Strategic partnerships with Turkey’s defense ecosystem — notably Roketsan, Aselsan, and TUBITAK — have accelerated innovation, while a deliberate focus on modular designs and export-friendly technology has enabled flexibility across diverse operational environments.
Baykar’s Bayraktar TB3 UAV has become the world’s first drone capable of successfully taking off and landing on short-runway naval vessels, completing 170 automatic take-off and landing tests and demonstrating outstanding performance under various weather conditions.
Turkey’s Rise in Central Asia and Beyond
One of the most critical battlegrounds for UAV exports is Central Asia, where Turkey’s market share has surged due to a combination of smart pricing, real-world performance, and “drone diplomacy.”
1. Cost-Performance Leadership
For countries like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan, Turkish drones offer 80% of the capabilities of high-end Western systems at less than 30% of the cost. In scenarios where large drone fleets are more valuable than a handful of expensive platforms, TB2s dominate procurement decisions.
2. Combat-Proven Reliability
The TB2’s performance during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was a turning point. The success of Azerbaijan’s forces in neutralizing Armenian armor and air defenses validated Turkish drones as effective tools for asymmetric warfare, triggering a cascade of procurement deals across Central Asia.
3. Customization and Technology Transfer
Turkey differentiates itself by offering flexible cooperation models:
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Kazakhstan secured a local Anka-S production line, ensuring technological sovereignty.
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The UAE received customized TB2 units equipped with region-specific munitions.
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Kyrgyzstan’s military procurement accelerated after demonstrations of TB2’s battlefield capabilities.
4. Drone Diplomacy
Shared cultural and historical ties between Turkey and Turkic-speaking Central Asian states amplify its soft power. By combining economic deals with defense exports, Ankara positions itself as a strategic partner rather than merely a supplier, gaining long-term influence in the region.
China’s Regulatory Challenge: Losing the Lead
For years, China’s “Wing Loong” and “CH” (Caihong) series drones competed head-to-head with Bayraktar platforms in the global UAV market. However, tightened export controls introduced since mid-2023 have started to limit China’s reach — particularly in sensitive regions like the Middle East, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe.
Impact of China’s Export Controls
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Export licensing complexity: Many Chinese UAVs above certain specifications now require special export permits, leading to longer lead times and higher administrative costs.
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Restricted sales to conflict zones: Regulations increasingly restrict direct sales to countries involved in ongoing conflicts, a segment where Turkish drones have thrived.
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Geopolitical caution: Concerns over U.S. sanctions and diplomatic friction discourage some Chinese manufacturers from entering politically sensitive markets.
The result? Turkey capitalized on gaps left by China, offering drones without the same licensing constraints, while delivering proven combat systems at competitive prices.
The Shifting Competitive Landscape
Turkey’s dominance doesn’t come without challenges, but its trajectory is clear:
| Country | Market Position | Key Strengths | Limitations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | Market leader (65%) | Cost-effective, combat-proven, export-friendly | Production capacity constraints |
| China | Strong potential but declining in exports | Advanced technology, high payload options | Regulatory hurdles, political constraints |
| USA | High-end niche | Superior tech, stealth, ISR systems | High cost, ITAR restrictions |
| Israel | Legacy player | Mature technology, intelligence-driven designs | Limited regional influence in Muslim-majority countries |
| Iran | Low-cost disruptor | Affordable suicide drones | Inferior tech, limited global reputation |
| Russia | Traditional influence | Regional military ties | Lagging UAV innovation, sanctions impact |
What This Means for the Future
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Turkey is setting the export standard:
Baykar’s ability to combine affordability, operational success, and flexible diplomacy positions Turkey as the default supplier for mid-tier defense buyers. -
China must balance control and competitiveness:
If Chinese export controls remain rigid, markets like Central Asia, Africa, and Eastern Europe will increasingly shift toward Turkish and Iranian suppliers. -
The next frontier: UAV technology convergence:
Turkey’s KIZILELMA stealth UAV and China’s Wing Loong-X highlight the race to integrate AI autonomy, swarming capabilities, and carrier-based operations. The winner will dominate not just exports, but future warfare paradigms.
How the UAV Export Landscape Is Changing
The global UAV export market is undergoing a profound power shift. Turkey, through Baykar’s leadership, has seized a 65% share, fueled by cost-effective platforms, battlefield credibility, and strategic diplomacy. In contrast, China’s tighter export controls risk eroding its once-dominant position, particularly in emerging conflict-driven markets.
For international buyers, the UAV landscape now represents a choice between accessibility and sophistication: Turkish systems dominate mid-range operational needs, while Chinese and U.S. platforms cater to the high-end spectrum.
At AIRMOBI, we believe this evolving ecosystem creates both opportunities and challenges for UAV manufacturers and operators. As regulatory landscapes shift and technological innovation accelerates, agility in adapting to new export realities will define the next decade of UAV leadership.
