In the latest report released by the FAA, “FAA Aerospace Forecast 2024-2044,” detailed predictions about the market size for eVTOL (electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing) have been made. These forecasts are based on FAA-funded research and, given the rapidly changing market, focus on short-term predictions up to six years after eVTOL’s entry into service (EIS).
eVTOL Flights and Passenger Scale
- Number of Vertiports and Costs
- Operational Revenue and Ticket Prices
- FAA Forecast Summary
eVTOL Flights and Passenger Scale
The forecast for eVTOL transportation is divided into a baseline (Base) and a conservative (Low) scenario, with the conservative scenario being 30% lower in scale than the baseline.
Flight Number Predictions
Assuming a successful eVTOL EIS, the baseline forecast predicts over 290,000 flights in the first year, rapidly growing to nearly 3.9 million flights annually by the sixth year. In the conservative forecast, the sixth year would see over 2.7 million flights.
Passenger Number Predictions
The passenger number forecast is based on the predicted number of flights and the load factor per flight. Most eVTOL designs assume one pilot and one to four passengers.
According to the market research report on shared route models, the average load factor for airport shuttle flights is expected to be three passengers, corresponding to the baseline scenario. However, due to the flexibility of on-demand services, the air taxi scenario is expected to have a lower load factor, with an average of two passengers, corresponding to the conservative scenario.
In the baseline scenario, the passenger count starts at about 887,000 in the first year, possibly reaching around 2.3 million by the third year, and over 11 million by the sixth year. In the conservative scenario, driven by lower flight numbers and a lower per-trip passenger assumption, the passenger count would reach about 1 million by the third year and over 5 million by the sixth year.
Daily Flights and Passenger Numbers Predictions
Converting the annual data to daily figures, the baseline scenario predicts over 800 flights per day carrying more than 2,400 passengers in the first year. By the third year, this rises to over 2,200 daily flights carrying more than 6,800 passengers, and by the sixth year, over 10,000 daily flights transporting more than 30,000 passengers. In the conservative scenario, daily passenger numbers would grow from over 1,100 in the first year to over 14,000 by the sixth year.
Number of Vertiports and Costs
Despite the FAA’s efforts to provide initial forecasts for the eVTOL market size, many factors could introduce uncertainty to these figures. A recent GAO report estimates that in smaller metropolitan areas (1.5 to 2.5 million population), six vertiports are needed, while larger metropolitan areas (7 to 10 million population) may require up to 77.
It is estimated that ground facility costs in smaller metropolitan areas total $50 million, whereas larger metropolitan areas could cost nearly five times as much, approximately $240 million.
The ASSURE report indicates that each metropolitan area would need to construct about 75 to 300 vertiports. ASSURE estimates that establishing a mature air taxi network nationwide in the U.S. would require 2,500 to 3,500 vertiports, which would be a costly endeavor.
Clearly, one of the biggest challenges for the eVTOL market entry is the number and cost of the necessary infrastructure.
Operational Revenue and Ticket Prices
FAA-funded research estimates that eVTOL operational revenue will be relatively low, reaching around $150 million by 2025-2026 and potentially up to $2.7 billion by 2030.
By combining these revenue predictions with the corresponding passenger forecasts, the average ticket price per passenger is estimated to be around $80-$120, corresponding to the baseline and conservative scenarios, respectively.
Recent service announcements from eVTOL companies suggest prices for a fully loaded four-seat cabin range from $136 to $200, translating to $34-$50 per passenger, which is about half of the calculated price based on revenue estimates.
FAA Forecast Summary
The FAA concludes that eVTOL services will likely face fierce competition from closely related alternative industries, such as ground transportation, where emerging autonomous driving solutions in increasingly electrified vehicles are making significant advancements.
The FAA predicts that eVTOL services will become a reality in the U.S. between 2025-2027, initially rolling out in urban and suburban areas, with accelerated growth over time expanding to more distant and remote destinations and routes.
The FAA will continue to closely collaborate with numerous stakeholders within the industry and NASA, monitoring overall trends in Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), and will continuously update this report with new trends and forecasts in AAM.
